Value elicitation and the prediction of future tastes and feelings

George Loewenstein

Value elicitation methods often ask people to evaluate situations or
states that they haven't experienced, such as diseases, disabilities, or
environmental conditions.  The validity of such elicitations depends, in
part, on the accuracy of people's predictions of how such states or
experiences would feel.  This paper will review, and attempt to make
sense of, the large number of diverse studies that have documented
systematic biases in predictions of future tastes and feelings.